Does Gingrich actually want Romney to lose?

Since his poor showing in Iowa at the start of the Republican primary process, Newt Gingrich has made it clear that his primary goal is no longer to win the nomination himself, but to prevent Mitt Romney from doing so.  The endless barrage of Romney attack ads took Newt from a December poll surge to a distant fourth place in Iowa.

Gingrich is really staying in this race to take delegates away from Romney, rather than in some vain hope he may actually win.  The irony is that this tactic is having the reverse effect; Mitt picked up at least half the delegates and six states in a comprehensive victory.  Prior to this round of votes Rick Santorum was the clear challenger to Romney; this hasn't changed, but Romney has considerably widened the gap.

If Gingrich really wants to stop Romney, he needs to drop out now and throw his full weight behind Santorum.  The big race yesterday was in Ohio, where Romney won by less than 13,000 votes, Gingrich pulled in 175,000 votes, a long way behind the top two, but a number that dwarfs Romney's winning margin.  Many commentators have suggested that Gingrich probably cost Santorum in Michigan last week.  Indeed, if Gingirch pulled out, his supporters would have split decisively to Santorum; if Gingrich votes would have sneaked him through in Michigan, they would have delivery a thumping Santorum victory in Ohio.  In both cases Newt's candidacy enabled Romney to secure a majority of the delegates at stake.

What does this mean for future primaries and caucuses?  Next week sees votes in Nebraska, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri, with Illinois and Lousiana going to the polls the week after.  Nebraska will probably deliver for Santorum, as will Missouri, which gave him a stunning victory in a non-binding primary a few weeks back.  Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are all fertile territory for the Gingrich campaign, he should pick up at least two of these and a comfortable majority of the delegates.  The unfortunate irony is that this is about as far as it goes for Gingrich; his support is marginal everywhere except the deep south, and he cannot expect to pick up much more support once the polls close in Lousiana, leaving him far short of the delegate count Romney holds now.  Gingrich cannot win but Santorum possibly still could.

Santorum during his years at Carmel
Highschool in Mundelein, Illinois.  Santorum
is the only candidate with real ties to the
state.

This brings us to Illinois, a state that could go for Romney or Santorum.  The 5th most populous state in the US and comfortably the largest prize left in the mid-west, Illinois houses the city of Chicago, and represents Romney's best prospects in the next few weeks.  If Ohio is the big swing state for Super Tuesday, Illinois is the swing state for the rest of March.  Santorum needs a comfortably win here to stop Romney taking a decisive lead.  If Gingrich throws his weight behind Santorum, he will probably take the state, otherwise Romney will probably edge a victory the same way he did in Ohio and Michigan.

With the north eastern states, California and Utah pretty much in the bag for Romney, Santorum needs big wins  in Illinois and the rest of the mid-west to have any chance of catching up.  At the end of the day though, he cannot defeat Romney without taking the deep south and the only way that will happen is if Gingrich pulls out and gives Santorum his support.

Gingrich is in this race to stop Romney, if he stays in though, he may just fail.