Does Gingrich actually want Romney to lose?

Since his poor showing in Iowa at the start of the Republican primary process, Newt Gingrich has made it clear that his primary goal is no longer to win the nomination himself, but to prevent Mitt Romney from doing so.  The endless barrage of Romney attack ads took Newt from a December poll surge to a distant fourth place in Iowa.

Gingrich is really staying in this race to take delegates away from Romney, rather than in some vain hope he may actually win.  The irony is that this tactic is having the reverse effect; Mitt picked up at least half the delegates and six states in a comprehensive victory.  Prior to this round of votes Rick Santorum was the clear challenger to Romney; this hasn't changed, but Romney has considerably widened the gap.

If Gingrich really wants to stop Romney, he needs to drop out now and throw his full weight behind Santorum.  The big race yesterday was in Ohio, where Romney won by less than 13,000 votes, Gingrich pulled in 175,000 votes, a long way behind the top two, but a number that dwarfs Romney's winning margin.  Many commentators have suggested that Gingrich probably cost Santorum in Michigan last week.  Indeed, if Gingirch pulled out, his supporters would have split decisively to Santorum; if Gingrich votes would have sneaked him through in Michigan, they would have delivery a thumping Santorum victory in Ohio.  In both cases Newt's candidacy enabled Romney to secure a majority of the delegates at stake.

What does this mean for future primaries and caucuses?  Next week sees votes in Nebraska, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri, with Illinois and Lousiana going to the polls the week after.  Nebraska will probably deliver for Santorum, as will Missouri, which gave him a stunning victory in a non-binding primary a few weeks back.  Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are all fertile territory for the Gingrich campaign, he should pick up at least two of these and a comfortable majority of the delegates.  The unfortunate irony is that this is about as far as it goes for Gingrich; his support is marginal everywhere except the deep south, and he cannot expect to pick up much more support once the polls close in Lousiana, leaving him far short of the delegate count Romney holds now.  Gingrich cannot win but Santorum possibly still could.

Santorum during his years at Carmel
Highschool in Mundelein, Illinois.  Santorum
is the only candidate with real ties to the
state.

This brings us to Illinois, a state that could go for Romney or Santorum.  The 5th most populous state in the US and comfortably the largest prize left in the mid-west, Illinois houses the city of Chicago, and represents Romney's best prospects in the next few weeks.  If Ohio is the big swing state for Super Tuesday, Illinois is the swing state for the rest of March.  Santorum needs a comfortably win here to stop Romney taking a decisive lead.  If Gingrich throws his weight behind Santorum, he will probably take the state, otherwise Romney will probably edge a victory the same way he did in Ohio and Michigan.

With the north eastern states, California and Utah pretty much in the bag for Romney, Santorum needs big wins  in Illinois and the rest of the mid-west to have any chance of catching up.  At the end of the day though, he cannot defeat Romney without taking the deep south and the only way that will happen is if Gingrich pulls out and gives Santorum his support.

Gingrich is in this race to stop Romney, if he stays in though, he may just fail.

Liberal Tolerance

In the words of Matt Stone, "I hate conservatives, but I really fucking hate liberals."

UK's Digital Economy Act seeks to kill net neutrality

BT and Talk Talk have today lost an appeal against the Digital Economy Act 2010, which would force ISP's to monitor customer usage, and introduce a graduated response scheme that could eventually lead to users getting cut off.

This bill represents a massive intrusion into user privacy, as well as a huge cost to ISP's who would be forced to implement the bill.  Net neutrality is one of the great vestiges of freedom we have in our society, it's just another thing for the government to infringe upon.

BT and Talk Talk lose file-sharing appeal

Another very real concern is what this means for universities and libraries, which provide internet access to their  students and members.  This bill seems to hold these institutions responsible for what users do, a foolish form of collective punishment.

No Bail for Chris Tappin

So Chris Tappin has been denied bail by US authorities apparently, "Federal prosecutors told a court in El Paso, Texas, that Mr Tappin could be a "danger to the community" if released."  

What a joke, a 65 year old grandfather with no criminal record.  How can the British government just hand people over like this?

A more worrying question is why do the British people do not care more?  Surely we should be concerned if British citizens are handed over to the American authorities without any British court ever being allowed to examine the evidence against them?  I personally believe British citizens have a right to fight their case before ever being shipped out of the country.  If people like Tappin are guilty then a fair and proper process in the UK would probably see them extradited.  Extradition without such processes is surely a breach of Mr. Tappin's democratic rights, a breach that should make all Britons shift uncomfortably.

Young Libertarians can make UKIP exciting.

Libertarianism is fuelled by youth nowadays.  Just look at what is happening in America, where Ron Paul is consistently polling highly amongst voters under 30, taking this age group in several states.  UKIP, while the only real Libertarian party in the UK, finds itself sorely lacking in support from those under 40 and 18-24 year olds especially.  This seems like a market UKIP should really be trying to tap.

Young voters where always the domain of the Liberal Democrats, but since the coalition and the tuition fees fiasco this support has dried up even more rapidly than the parties support in other corners.  This seems like an open opportunity for UKIP.  Younger voters are naturally more libertarian inclined nowadays and the party finds itself in the bizarre position of being the most significant party not advocating tuition fees.

As Michael White pointed out in the Guardian last night, the defection of Alexandra Swann to the UKIP cause is arguably more significant than the defection of Roger Helmer MEP, because she represents the future and a different constituency than the party's traditional base.  UKIP would be wise to put Swann and other articulate, young members at the forefront of it's campaign.  Perhaps the party can shed the image of old Thatcherite s in exile and move forward as a young, energized and enthusiastic party.

What is the EU thinking now?

The EU has released a new promotional video for itself...I don't understand why the EU needs a commercial, but this is just offensive.

Update:  Haha, the EU took the video down, fortunately @DanHannanMEP had the foresight to make a copy.

And the EU has released a statement regarding the video.  Apparently the reaction of people in their target 16-24 age group has been 'positive' err...

Also you have to one about the interests of an organization that has a 'Directorate-General of Enlargement'

Roger Helmer UKIP's newest MEP

Just watched through Roger Helmer's speech at the UKIP conference yesterday.  Doing some background research I can't say I'm sure about this guy, but he may one statement I very much liked:


"I was born into a Britain that was free, and independent, and democratic.
All I ask is the right to die in a Britain that is free, and independent, and democratic."


Amen.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN-TB7yS9_U